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以“5.12”地震重灾县———青川县(青川生命线道路沿线)作为研究区域,选取产生崩塌及影响其稳定性的9个因素为评价因子,将崩塌危险度分为无危险、低度危险、中度危险和高度危险4个等级,建立了基于改进灰色聚类法的崩塌危险度评价模型。应用该模型对青川生命线道路沿线崩塌灾害点进行评价,将此评价结果与经典灰色聚类法所得的评价结果进行对比。研究结果表明,基于改进灰色聚类法的崩塌危险度评价模型所得的评价结果比经典灰色聚类法所得的评级结果更接近于现场专家勘查结果。由此可见,采用这种基于改进灰色聚类法的评价模型对崩塌危险度进行快速、科学、有效地评价是切实可行的。
Taking Qingchuan County (the life cycle of Qingchuan Road) as the research area, 9 factors that produce collapse and affect its stability are selected as evaluation factors, and the collapse risk is classified as non-hazardous, Low risk, medium risk and high risk four levels, established based on improved gray clustering collapse risk assessment model. The model was applied to evaluate the collapse hazard along the Qingchuan Lifeline Route, and the results were compared with those obtained by the classical gray clustering method. The results show that the evaluation results of the collapse risk assessment model based on the improved gray clustering method are closer to the field expert findings than those of the classical gray clustering method. Thus, using this evaluation model based on improved gray clustering method, it is practicable to evaluate collapse risk rapidly, scientifically and effectively.