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将单一河道洪水演算系统视为单输入—单输出系统，基于时间序列分析中的ＡＲＭＡＶ（２，１）模型，应用时间序列分析最优控制理论建立了水位演算模型和水位预报方法。证明若采用水位作变量，则可采用无约束的最优化方法确定参数；若采用水深作变量，则可采用以水量平衡为约束的寻优方法确定参数。本文所建立的水位预报方法用于黄河下游水位预报，得到了满意的预报精度。
Based on the ARMAV (2,1) model in time series analysis, a single channel flood calculation system is considered as a single-input-single-output system. Based on the optimal control theory of time series analysis, a water level calculation model and a water level forecasting method are established. If the water level is used as a variable, the parameters can be determined by the unconstrained optimization method. If the water depth is used as a variable, the optimization method with the water balance as the constraint can be used to determine the parameters. The water level forecasting method established in this paper is used to forecast the water level in the lower Yellow River, and a satisfactory prediction accuracy is obtained.