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该文使用中国海关进出口商品的面板数据研究了人民币实际有效汇率对中国大陆进出口相关行业贸易值的影响,即行业进出口的汇率弹性,并在测算中控制了国内外GDP的可能影响;在此基础上,该文针对不同行业进出口汇率弹性的差异,进一步分析了资本密集度对行业进出口汇率弹性的影响。结果表明:2002至2010年间18个行业大类的进出口汇率弹性均为负值,即人民币升值会对中国大陆外贸相关行业的出口和进口同时造成负面影响;进出口行业汇率弹性存在较大差异,行业的资本密集度越高,进出口受人民币升值的负面影响越大,资本劳动比率每上升1个标准差,进出口汇率弹性的绝对值会分别增加0.388和0.741。
The paper uses the panel data of China Customs import and export commodities to study the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the trade value of China’s import and export related industries, namely exchange rate elasticity of import and export, and controls the possible impact of domestic and foreign GDP in the calculation. On this basis, this paper further analyzes the impact of capital intensity on the exchange rate flexibility of the import and export of different industries in view of the differences in the elasticity of import and export of different industries. The results show that the elasticity of the import and export of 18 industries in all sectors between 2002 and 2010 is negative, that is, the appreciation of the renminbi will have a negative impact on the export and import of China’s foreign trade-related industries at the same time. There is a big difference in the exchange rate elasticity between the import and export sectors , The higher the capital intensity of the industry, the greater the negative impact of RMB appreciation on imports and exports. Each time the capital-labor ratio rises by 1 standard deviation, the absolute value of the import-export exchange rate elasticity increases by 0.388 and 0.741 respectively.