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在威廉斯估价模型和货币内生性理论框架内,可以判断股票价格指数与货币供给量有着不可分割的关系。货币的供给量会极大的影响股票价格指数的走势,同时股票价格指数的走势也会影响市场上货币供给的需求。使用SPSS软件,首先对上证综指、货币供给量中M0、M1、M2值进行了相关性检验,又利用时间序列分析的方法进行了回归分析,最终建立线性回归模型。对股指与货币供给量的关系进行了定量描述,并对残差进行分析,利用已知市场上的货币供给量在一定程度上预测了股票价格指数。
Within the framework of the Williams Valuation Model and the Theory of Monetary Endogenesis, it can be concluded that the stock price index is inextricably linked to the money supply. The supply of money will greatly affect the stock price index trend, while the stock price index trend will also affect the market demand for money supply. Using SPSS software, the paper first tests the correlation between the M0, M1 and M2 of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the money supply, and uses the time series analysis method to conduct the regression analysis. Finally, a linear regression model is established. The relationship between the stock index and the money supply is quantitatively described, and the residuals are analyzed. Using the money supply in the known markets, the stock price index is predicted to a certain extent.