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使用系统动力学模型有效模拟了1996~2012年住宅供需发展情况,量化解析供需非均衡的主要影响因素,并深入探讨非均衡状况的变化趋势及其原因。研究显示,虽然非均衡度的绝对值较小,但从2009年起供需发展趋势已呈背离,待售率持续上升,这与市场预期过高、开发效率下降等因素相关,认为应建立价、量并重的调控机制,充分发挥非均衡指标在调控中的作用,并提出了具体政策建议。
Using system dynamics model to effectively simulate the development of housing supply and demand from 1996 to 2012, quantify and analyze the main influencing factors of imbalance between supply and demand, and in-depth study of the changing trend of non-equilibrium and its causes. The research shows that although the absolute value of non-equilibrium is relatively small, the trend of supply and demand has diverged since 2009, and the rate of sales continued to rise. This is related to the factors such as the high market expectation and the decline of development efficiency, The same amount of regulation and control mechanisms, give full play to the role of unbalanced indicators in regulation and control, and put forward specific policy recommendations.