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中国当前正面临金融危机导致的新一轮贸易保护主义。经济学理论和日本20世纪80年代的实践证明,对外直接投资可能减小贸易差额从而应对贸易保护主义。本文认为,当前中国在贸易顺差增长趋势、顺差调节效果、产出和出口的世界地位、货币升值趋势、对外直接投资发展趋势等方面与20世纪80年代的日本具有较高相似性,货币环境和经济基本面则更为优越,存在通过扩大对外直接投资应对贸易保护的可能性和必要性,是我国短期和中期内应对贸易保护主义的有效途径。
China is currently facing a new round of trade protectionism caused by the financial crisis. Economic theory and Japan’s practice in the 1980s prove that OFDI may reduce trade balances in response to trade protectionism. This paper argues that at present China has a high similarity with Japan in the 1980s in terms of the trend of trade surplus growth, the effect of trade surplus adjustment, the world position of output and export, the trend of currency appreciation and the trend of foreign direct investment. The monetary environment and The economic fundamentals are more superior. There is the possibility and necessity of dealing with trade protection through expanding direct foreign investment. This is an effective way for China to respond to trade protectionism in the short and medium term.