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极值风速的估计对于结构的抗风设计有着重要意义。本文简要介绍了目前极值风速估计中广泛应用的极值理论和四种概率模型极值Ⅰ型分布(Gumbel分布)、极值Ⅱ型分布(Frechet分布)、极值Ⅲ型分布(Reverse Weibull分布)以及广义极值分布。采用以上四种模型和不同的参数估计方法对澳门地区四个站台的风速数据进行拟合。最终结果显示四个站台的风速概率分布并不完全相同,但通过极值Ⅰ型分布进行拟合是可以接受的。同时鉴于风速统计分布的差异性较大,风荷载不宜给出一个统一固定的分项系数。
Estimation of the extreme wind speed is of great importance to the wind-resistant design of the structure. In this paper, the extremum theory and the Gumbel distribution, the Frechet distribution and the Weibull distribution are introduced briefly in the present extreme wind speed estimation. ) And generalized extreme value distribution. Using the above four models and different parameter estimation methods, the wind speed data of four stations in Macao are fitted. The final result shows that the wind speed probability distributions of the four stations are not exactly the same, but it is acceptable to fit the extreme type I distribution. At the same time, given the large difference in the statistical distribution of wind speed, it is not advisable to give a uniform and fixed sub-coefficient of wind load.