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针对河道受气候变化和人类活动影响致使水文情势变异的问题,基于东江上游龙川水文站1952~2010年的实测径流数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验方法分析了径流量的变化趋势和变异区间,并引入IHA指标、生态过剩和生态赤字指数来量化东江流域的水文变异程度。结果表明,在过去近60年期间,龙川水文站年径流量呈增长趋势,由于上游水库的调节作用,径流量大小、频率、延时及逆转次数都有显著改变;生态统计分析表明,生态过剩现象较生态赤字现象更为频繁,夏季洪水期高度运用水库调度的情况则除外。可见龙川站水文情势的变化对生态系统具有潜在影响,需加强东江流域的水资源管理来满足供水和生态系统的需求。
According to the measured runoff data of Longchuan Hydrological Station in the upper reaches of Dongjiang River from 1952 to 2010, the trend and variation range of runoff were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test Introducing IHA indicators, ecological excess and ecological deficit index to quantify the degree of hydrological variation in the Dongjiang River Basin. The results show that the annual runoff of Longchuan Hydrological Station shows an increasing trend over the past 60 years. Due to the regulation of upstream reservoirs, the runoff size, frequency, delay and number of reversal have significant changes. Ecological statistics show that the ecological Excess phenomenon is more frequent than ecological deficit, except for the case of reservoir operation being highly used in summer flood season. Visible Longchuan station hydrological changes have a potential impact on ecosystems, the need to strengthen the management of water resources in the Dongjiang River to meet the water supply and ecosystem needs.