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目的分析评价传染病自动预警信息系统的预警方法与效果,为提高传染病预警效率提供依据。方法利用传染病自动预警系统中,无锡市滨湖区2010年1月1日—2012年12月31日发出的预警信号进行相关的统计分析。结果预警系统3年间共发出预警信号391次,涉及8种传染病,预警信号阳性率0.26%。响应率和完整率均是100%,平均响应时间为0.42 h,及时响应率、当日响应率分别为79.53%、98.97%。结论系统具有高度敏感性,但阳性预测值较低,及时响应和现场处置是今后强化的重点。
Objective To analyze and evaluate the method and effect of early warning of automatic warning information system for infectious diseases and provide evidence for improving the efficiency of early warning of infectious diseases. Methods Using the automatic warning system for infectious diseases, Wuxi City, Binhu District, January 1, 2010 - December 31, 2012 warning signals issued by the relevant statistical analysis. Results Early warning system issued a total of 391 early warning signals in 3 years, involving 8 kinds of infectious diseases, the positive rate of early warning signals was 0.26%. Response rate and complete rate were 100%, the average response time was 0.42 h, timely response rate, the day response rates were 79.53%, 98.97%. Conclusion The system is highly sensitive, but the positive predictive value is low, timely response and on-site disposal is the focus of future intensification.