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MX导弹是民兵式洲际弹道导弹的后续型号。美国国内对其必要性、基地方式及各种供挑选的方案进行了长期辩论。本文付印时,这场辩论已经快要结束了。 北大西洋公约组织中的美国各盟国已经看到MX至少在1989年之前不可能全面部署。就是说,在1982年后的六年以上的时间内打开一扇“易受攻击之窗”,听任苏联用新型导弹把民兵式导弹通通报销掉。尽管如此,那些盟国除了对此感到有些沮丧外,却并不十分关心这场辩论。 由于一直没有找到其他行得通的办法来取代核威慑,所以美国这场辩论如何结束对能否维持华沙条约集团与北约组织之间的和平就具有关键性的意义了。陆基洲际弹道导弹是美国的三合一战略力量中的主力。假如找不到比民兵式导弹明显更有生存能力并更为有效的后续型号的话,美国为其友邦和盟国张开的核保护伞就有出现漏洞从而失去他人信赖的危险。在这种情况下,北约的整个防御战略就会变得一团糟,联盟中的某些成员可能要寻求别的躲避办法,也许是保持中立。 本文系美国一位最直言不讳而又很受尊敬的防御分析家所作,其中论述了美国MX辩论中的关键性战略问题。“国际防御评论”委托他写这篇文章,是因为辩论的结果将在国际上引起戏剧般的反响。
The MX missile is a follow-up to the militia intercontinental ballistic missile. The United States has had a long-standing debate on its necessity, the way it is based and the options it has to choose from. This article is almost over when the paper is printed. The U.S. allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have seen that it is impossible for MX to be fully deployed by at least 1989. In other words, a “vulnerable window” was opened for more than six years after 1982, allowing the Soviet Union to reimburse militia missiles with new missiles. In spite of this, those allies, apart from being somewhat discouraged about this, are not very concerned about this debate. As no other alternative to nuclear deterrence has been found to replace nuclear deterrence, the end of the debate in the United States is of crucial importance to the maintenance of peace between the Warsaw Pact Group and NATO. Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles are the main force in the three-in-one strategic force in the United States. Without a viable and effective follow-up model that is clearly more viable than militia-style missiles, the nuclear umbrella that the United States opens for its allies and its allies risks loopholes and loss of confidence in others. Under such circumstances, the entire defense strategy of NATO will become a mess. Some members of the coalition may seek other ways of avoiding or may remain neutral. This article is the United States one of the most outspoken and respected defense analysts, which discusses the key strategic issues in the MX debate in the United States. The International Defense Review commissioned him to write this article because the outcome of the debate will have a dramatic international repercussion.