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本文利用新股定位的独特数据,考察投资者是否该在新股交易中听从分析师的意见。研究发现:以分析师预测价格法估计的IPO溢价(即IPO首日收盘价高于分析师预测价格部分)越高,新股上市后的短期和长期市场表现越差。并且,较之于IPO首日回报率和以可比公司乘数法估计的IPO溢价,以分析师预测价格法估计的IPO溢价能够更好地预测新股上市后的长期市场表现。上述证据表明,新股交易中投资者应该参考分析师的建议。
This article uses the unique data positioning of new shares to examine whether investors should follow the analyst’s advice in the IPO transaction. The study found that the higher the IPO premium (ie, the IPO’s first-day closing price above the analyst’s forecast price) estimated by the analyst’s forecasting price method, the worsened performance of the short-listed and long-term markets after IPO. Moreover, the IPO premium estimated by the analyst forecast price method can better predict the long-term market performance of new shares after they are listed compared with the IPO first-day return and the IPO-based premium estimated by the comparable company multiplier method. The above evidence shows that investors in new shares should refer to the analyst’s advice.