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本文基于2004~2013年中国对115个国家的直接投资数据,采用面板固定效应模型,分析国家风险和投资动机对于中国对外直接投资的影响。本文结论为:(1)东道国的政治风险、经济风险、金融风险变量的估计系数均显著为负,表明中国对外直接投资总体上偏好政治、经济和金融风险较高的国家。(2)中国对外直接投资总体上具有明显的市场寻求和资源寻求动机,以及一定程度的战略资产寻求动机,但效率寻求动机不明显。分国家类型看,中国对发达国家的投资具有明显的市场寻求、资源寻求和战略资产寻求动机,对发展中国家的投资除市场寻求动机显著外,资源寻求动机和战略资产寻求动机均不显著。(3)东道国与中国的进口、出口及其外资开放度变量的系数基本上显著为正,东道国的工资、法治变量的系数正负向不稳定、统计不显著。
Based on the data of China’s direct investment in 115 countries from 2004 to 2013, the panel fixed-effects model is used to analyze the impact of national risk and investment motivation on China’s foreign direct investment. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The estimated coefficient of political risk, economic risk and financial risk in host countries are all significantly negative, indicating that China’s FDI as a whole prefers countries with higher political, economic and financial risks. (2) As a whole, China’s OFDI has obvious market seeking and resource seeking motives, as well as a certain degree of strategic assets seeking motivation, but its motivation for efficiency seeking is not obvious. In terms of the types of countries, China has obvious market-seeking, investment-seeking and strategic asset-seeking motives for investment in developed countries. In addition to seeking market-seeking motivation for investment in developing countries, there is no significant resource seeking motive and strategic asset seeking motivation. (3) The coefficient of the host country and China’s import, export and foreign capital degree of openness is basically significantly positive. The wage of the host country and the coefficient of the rule of law variables are positive and negative, and the statistics are not significant.