该文利用内蒙古锡盟地区 1 986～ 1 997年的草原火灾及同期气象资料 ,采用数学模拟的建模方法 ,研制了该地区重点火险区域 (包括 4个旗、市 )的春季草原火险天气预报模型。该预报模型综合考虑了火灾发生当日及前期气象要素对草原火险的影响 ,试报检验结果可靠 ,可用于当地的火险预报 ,为防火部门制定防火决策提供依据和指导 ,并可产生较大的社会经济效益 Based on the grassland fires and synoptic meteorological data from 1986 to 1997 in the Ximeng area of ​​Inner Mongolia, this paper developed the spring prairie fire risk forecast in the key fire danger areas (including 4 flags and cities) in this area by mathematical modeling method. model. The prediction model comprehensively considers the impact of meteorological elements on fire risk in the steppe on the day of the fire and on the previous period. The test results are reliable and can be used for local fire forecasting. It provides the basis and guidance for the fire protection department to make fire prevention decision-making and can generate larger society Economic benefits