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天气预报说降水概率为60%,你出门会带伞吗?被雷电击中的概率到底有多大?地震发生之前,我们真的无法预测吗?中情局为什么会忽略“9·11”恐怖袭击发生的信号?禽流感为何会突然爆发,又突然消失?为什么大数据时代的预测更容易失败?人类每时每刻都需要对未来进行预测并制定相应的策略,因此我们对于“下一刻会发生什么”倍加关注。“信号”是我们想要和需要的事实,比如能帮助们侦破早期鞋子炸弹案的信号。“噪声”则是另一回事,通常是不相干的信息,它阻碍或误导我们搜索信号。
Weather forecast that the probability of precipitation is 60%, you go out with an umbrella? The probability of being hit by lightning in the end how much? Before the earthquake, we really can not predict it? CIA why ignore “9.11” terrorist attacks Why Bird Flu Suddenly Breaks Out and Crashes Suddenly Why Predict in the Big Data Era Is Easier to Fail Humanity always needs to predict the future and formulate its own strategy, What happened “more attention. ”Signal " is the fact we want and need, such as the signal to help detect the early shoe bomb case. Noise is another, often irrelevant, information that hinder or mislead us in searching for signals.