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对内蒙古地区1995-2011年能源碳排放结构及强度进行分析,运用偏相关性分析筛选出备选碳排放驱动因子,基于STIRPAT模型得出各个驱动因子弹性系数。根据弹性系数大小,选取前五个驱动因子作为预测参考序列构建GM(1,n)模型,对未来能源碳排放量进行预测。结果显示:碳排放量驱动因素中进出口总额、全社会固定资产投资、第二产业产值、GDP总额、人均GDP、第二产业产值所占比例是内蒙古地区能源碳排放正向驱动因素,并且驱动力从大到小排列;人口、单位GDP能耗对碳排放有反向驱动作用。内蒙古地区碳排量逐年增加,1995-2002年平稳增长,2003-2011年增长速度明显加快,预计2020年碳排放量将达到41505万t。
The structure and intensity of energy carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia during 1995-2011 were analyzed. Partial carbon correlation analysis was used to select the carbon emission drivers, and the elastic coefficients of each driving factor were obtained based on STIRPAT model. According to the size of elasticity coefficient, the first five driving factors are selected as the prediction reference sequence to construct the GM (1, n) model to predict the future energy carbon emissions. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions, total fixed assets investment, secondary industry output, total GDP, GDP per capita and the proportion of secondary industry output are the positive drivers of energy carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia and are driven by Power from big to small arrangement; population, energy consumption per unit of GDP has a reverse-driven role in carbon emissions. Carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia have been increasing year by year, steadily increasing from 1995 to 2002, and the growth rate in 2003-2011 has obviously accelerated. It is estimated that the carbon emissions in the year 2020 will reach 415.50 million tons.