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中国石油需求的高速增长和石油产量的有限增长,将对亚太地区和世界原油及油品市场产生影响。预计到2000年中国的油品需求将超过2亿吨,到2005年将增加到2.6亿吨。2000年中国原油产量预计约为1.6亿吨,原油和油品净进口量分别为2000和3000万吨;到2005年原油和油品进口量将分别达到7000和3500万吨。中国缺乏炼油业投资,严重依赖油品进口,可能会带动亚太地区油品价格上涨,同时也会增加中国自己的石油进口费用;而外资进入下游业,目前面临产品定价、市场准入和管理控制等一系列障碍。到2005年,中国的石油消费将高度依赖一个地区即中东所生产的石油。与美国多样化的进口来源相比,在石油供应保障方面,中国的处境并不安全。
The rapid growth of China’s oil demand and the limited growth of oil production will have an impact on the crude oil and oil products markets in the Asia Pacific region and the world. It is estimated that by the year 2000 China’s oil demand will exceed 200 million tons and will increase to 260 million tons by 2005. In 2000, China’s crude oil output is estimated at about 160 million tons, with net imports of crude oil and oil products of 2000 and 30 million tons respectively. By 2005 crude oil and oil imports will reach 7,000 and 35 million tons respectively. China’s lack of investment in the oil refining industry and its heavy dependence on oil imports may push up oil prices in the Asia Pacific region and at the same time increase China’s own oil import costs. While foreign capital is entering the downstream industry, it is facing product pricing, market access and management control And a series of obstacles. By 2005, China’s oil consumption will be highly dependent on oil produced in one area, the Middle East. Compared with the diversified sources of imports by the United States, China is not in a position to guarantee the security of its oil supply.