论文部分内容阅读
区域碳排放时空格局及其关键影响因素是近年来学者们关注的热点。本文以中国经济发达、经济关联密切、产业格局变化剧烈的泛长三角地区为案例,分析1990年以来典型年份碳排放的空间分异、时间演变,解析碳排放空间分异的关键影响因素。结果表明:(1)区域碳排放总量快速增长,总体格局稳中有变,核心区16个城市排放量占比大都超过50%。(2)以2005年为拐点,之前外围城市增长幅度较低,之后外围城市碳排放量快速增长;外围地区碳排放量占比从2005年的33%快速增加至2014年的47%,区域碳排放量的空间集聚度呈现先增后减的态势。(3)碳排放格局变化受多种因素影响,不同变量对碳排放的影响各异。其中,工业生产、城镇化建设及人口集聚仍是现阶段泛长三角地区最主要的碳排放来源;固定资产与外商投资对区域碳排放的作用呈增强趋势,但其作用强度较工业生产、城镇化建设、人口集聚要小。地区生产总值对碳排放影响存在倒U型关系,随着经济发展水平的提高,碳排放与经济发展呈现脱钩趋势。研究结果可为揭示经济发展格局变化的环境效应、制定节能减排政策提供参考。
The spatial-temporal pattern of regional carbon emissions and its key influencing factors are hot topics that scholars have been paying attention to in recent years. This paper takes the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region where China’s economy is developed, its economic connections are close, and its industrial structure is fierce. This paper analyzes the spatial differentiation and temporal evolution of carbon emissions in typical years since 1990, and analyzes the key factors affecting the spatial distribution of carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) The total carbon emissions in the region are growing rapidly, and the overall pattern is stable and changing. The proportion of emissions from the 16 core cities is more than 50%. (2) Taking 2005 as the inflection point, before the growth rate of peripheral cities was relatively low, the carbon emissions of peripheral cities increased rapidly; the proportion of carbon emissions in peripheral areas increased rapidly from 33% in 2005 to 47% in 2014. Regional Carbon The spatial concentration of emissions shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. (3) The change of carbon emission pattern is affected by many factors, and different variables have different effects on carbon emissions. Among them, industrial production, urbanization, and population agglomeration are still the most important sources of carbon emissions in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta at this stage; the role of fixed assets and foreign investment in regional carbon emissions is increasing, but its role is stronger than that of industrial production and townships. The construction of a population and the concentration of population should be small. The impact of regional GDP on carbon emissions has an inverted U-shaped relationship. With the improvement of economic development, carbon emissions and economic development are decoupled. The research results can provide reference for revealing the environmental effects of changes in economic development patterns and formulating policies for energy conservation and emission reduction.