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中国在2008年1月1日实行统一的企业所得税税率。对于这一税收政策变化,本文建立了一个动态递推可计算一般均衡模型,分析税收政策变化所带来的影响。模型分析结果表明,在政策变化当年,对除政府财政盈余外的其他经济变量冲击不大。在动态递推期内,模拟情形下政府财政盈余与基准情形相比逐渐减小。尽管影响程度有限,但税收政策变化在递推期内降低了投资,提高了消费,有利于促进中国经济增长方式转变。对于居民福利和宏观经济而言,企业所得税政策变化后,为保持政府财政盈余不变,消费税变化是较生产税和增值税更有利的一种选择。
China implemented a uniform enterprise income tax rate on January 1, 2008. For this tax policy change, this paper establishes a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, analyzes the impact of tax policy changes. The results of the model analysis show that in the year when the policy changes, the impact on other economic variables except the government fiscal surplus is insignificant. During the dynamic retiring period, the government fiscal surplus under the simulated situation gradually decreases from the baseline situation. Despite the limited impact, changes in tax policies have reduced investment during the retiring period, boosting consumption and promoting the transformation of China’s economic growth pattern. For the residents’ welfare and macroeconomy, after the change of the enterprise income tax policy, in order to keep the government fiscal surplus unchanged, the change in the consumption tax is a more favorable choice than the production tax and the value added tax.