论文部分内容阅读
近年来,我国政府将增值税改革作为降低企业税负和促进产业升级的重要举措。文章以2009年增值税转型和2016年“营改增”为对象,采用事件研究法检验投资者对增值税改革的认可度。研究发现,《中华人民共和国增值税暂行条例(修订草案)》颁布期间累计超常收益率显著为正;转型地区、中央国企以及增值税行业企业的累计超常收益率,分别显著高于试点地区、地方国企以及营业税行业企业,表明投资者对增值税转型持肯定态度,并且投资者能够区分增值税转型的主要受益范围。同时,市场对全面“营改增”改革也持肯定态度,但改革行业的累计超常收益明显低于非改革行业,可能的原因是较高的改革过渡成本和溢出效应。文章通过研究投资者对增值税改革的认可度明确了税制改革的市场反应,为全面评价增值税改革提供了经验证据。
In recent years, the Chinese government has taken the VAT reform as an important measure to reduce the corporate tax burden and promote industrial upgrading. This article uses the method of event research to test the investors’ recognition of the VAT reform in 2009 with the VAT transformation in 2009 and the “VAT reform in 2016”. The study found that cumulative excess abnormal returns during the promulgation of the Provisional Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Value Added Tax (Revised Draft) were significantly positive. The cumulative abnormal returns of enterprises in transitional areas, central state-owned enterprises and value-added tax businesses were significantly higher than those in pilot areas and places State-owned enterprises and business tax industry enterprises, indicating that investors hold a positive attitude toward the VAT reform, and investors can distinguish between the main benefits of VAT restructuring. At the same time, the market is also affirmative about the reform of the comprehensive “reform of the battalion and the reform of the battalion.” However, the cumulative extraordinary returns of the reforming industry are obviously lower than those of the non-reforming sector. The possible reasons are the relatively high transition costs and spillover effects of the reform. By studying the investor acceptance of VAT reform, the article clarifies the market reaction of the tax reform and provides empirical evidence for a comprehensive evaluation of the VAT reform.