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针对现有城镇空间增长动态过程模型多基于层级中心地理论和空间集聚效应原理,以反映单体城镇的建设用地蔓延式空间扩张为主体,不能满足我国新型城镇化战略的现状,提出了人口与土地协同城镇化的多中心城镇网络化空间增长过程分析建模的需求,研究人口-土地协同城镇化的城镇多中心空间增长格局情景模拟技术,建立基于人口迁移网络分析的城镇空间发展模拟模型。并以鄂州市为例开展实例研究,结果表明,鄂州市城镇建设用地持续增长,特别是新型的人口集聚区内城镇建设用地增长显著,城镇空间结构多中心化发展趋势明显。通过与逻辑斯蒂元胞自动机模型(Logisitic CA)模拟结果对比分析表明,顾及人口迁移驱动的城镇扩张模拟方法克服了传统CA模型难以模拟和发现新的增长中心的不足,适合多中心城镇发展格局的预测模拟。
Aiming at the existing dynamic process model of urban growth based on the theory of level center and spatial agglomeration, the model of urban growth in order to reflect the sprawling expansion of construction land in a single town as the main body can not meet the status quo of China’s new urbanization strategy, The demand for the analysis and modeling of network space growth in multi-center towns with synergetic urbanization is studied. The simulation model of urban multi-center spatial growth pattern with population-land synergetic urbanization is established, and a simulation model of urban spatial development based on population migration network analysis is established. The case study of Ezhou City is carried out. The results show that the urban construction land in Ezhou City continues to grow. Especially in the new-type population agglomeration area, the urban construction land increases significantly, and the development trend of urban spatial structure is more central. By comparing with Logisitic CA simulation results, it is shown that the urban expansion simulation method that takes population migration into account overcomes the deficiencies that traditional CA model is difficult to simulate and discover new growth center, which is suitable for the development of multi-center towns Prediction of pattern simulation.