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每年的3月份之后随着两节旺季集中出栏,国内的养殖需求都会出现需求季节性的下降。而国内的宏观方面,我们依然看到大的格调并未改变,局部政策略作微调。虽然官方调低了本年度GDP的一个增长幅度,但是中国经济定性只是增速放缓,目前这个庞大的机器很难停止,并且一旦增长停滞很多问题就会凸显。我们对于中国经济维持一个谨慎的看法,但是由于政府依然在保障民生上十分重视,因此中国的需求方面将会保持一个相对温和的增长。因此综合需求和宏观方面看,4月份国内饲料原料价格可能出现一定的回落,但是从长远看这一轮回调将是非常不错的采购机会。
After March each year, with two concentrated seasons slaughtered, the domestic demand for breeding there will be a seasonal decline in demand. As for the domestic macro-aspect, we still see that the grand style has not changed and the local policy has been slightly tweaked. Although the government has lowered this year’s GDP growth by one percentage point, qualitative growth in China has only slowed down. At present, this huge machine is hard to stop and many issues will become prominent once the growth is stagnating. We maintain a cautious view on the Chinese economy, but since the government still attaches great importance to protecting people’s livelihood, China’s demand will maintain a relatively moderate growth. Therefore, the overall demand and macro perspective, in April the domestic feed raw material prices may be some decline, but in the long run this round of callback will be very good purchasing opportunities.