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本文在开放宏观经济的平衡关系中引入产品的可贸易性差异,探讨我国贸易顺差的根源以及外需的可替代性。研究结果表明,(1)我国国内总供给结构偏向于贸易品,国内总需求结构偏向于非贸易品,两者之间不断扩大的差距是贸易顺差不断增长的根本原因;(2)非贸易品供给不足所导致的“强制储蓄”现象,制约了我国居民消费需求的增长,使其无法有效替代外需;(3)给定国内供给和需求的结构性特征,外需增加是国内投资增加的必要条件,投资需求无法替代外需;(4)为了实现总需求构成的重新平衡,特别是提升国内消费需求在总需求中的比重,不能简单地依赖总需求管理政策或收入分配政策,必须配合以促进供给结构调整的政策措施。
This article introduces the tradeability difference of products in the open macroeconomic balance and discusses the origin of our trade surplus and the substitutability of foreign demand. The results show that: (1) China’s total domestic supply structure is biased towards trade goods, while its domestic demand structure tends to be non-trade goods. The widening gap between the two is the root cause of the continuous increase of the trade surplus. (2) Non-trade goods The phenomenon of “compulsory savings” caused by insufficient supply has restricted the growth of consumer demand in our country so that it can not effectively replace foreign demand. (3) Given the structural characteristics of domestic supply and demand, the increase in external demand is an increase in domestic investment (4) In order to rebalance the composition of total demand, and in particular to increase the share of domestic consumer demand in aggregate demand, we can not simply rely on aggregate demand management policies or income distribution policies. We must work together with Policies and measures to promote supply structure adjustment.