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台风风暴潮是上海地区面临的主要自然灾害类型,历史上对该区域造成了极为严重的灾害损失。通过上海沿海多站点水文频率分析结果发现,由于高标准海塘的防护,上海发生风暴潮漫堤淹没的几率较小。在此基础上,构建了两处溃堤点6种重现期台风风暴潮溃堤情景,采用高精度洪水数值模型(FloodMap)开展台风风暴潮淹没情景模拟。结果显示,溃堤情景下,风暴潮淹没仅发生在局部小范围区域内。因此,可以认为在目前高标准海塘的保护下,上海受台风风暴潮灾害影响有限。但是,未来需重点关注全球气候变化可能导致的极端台风风暴潮事件。
The typhoon storm surge is a major type of natural disaster in Shanghai and has historically caused extremely serious disaster losses in the region. Based on the analysis of multi-site hydrological frequencies in Shanghai coastal areas, it is found that there is a small probability of flooding storm surge embankment in Shanghai due to the protection of high standard seawalls. Based on these, six typhoon storm surge embankments with two breakwater embankment points are constructed, and a typhoon storm surge inundation scenario simulation is carried out using the FloodMap model. The results show that storm surge inundation occurs only in the small area of the area under the condition of bank collapse. Therefore, it can be considered that under the protection of the current high standard seawall, Shanghai is limited by typhoon storm surge disasters. However, the future needs to focus on the possible extreme typhoon storm surge caused by global climate change.