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基于通用热气候指数(UTCI),本文分析了北京1960-2014年户外感知温度变化特征,并采用敏感性分析方法定量分析了驱动UTCI变化的主导因素。结果表明:1研究时段内,北京年均人体感知温度为9.2℃,人体整体感觉为舒适,并表现出显著的上升趋势,变化速率为0.52℃/10a;2在年际变化上,全年UTCI大致可以分为3个时期:1960-1970年持续下降期,1971-1990年持续上升期,1991-2014年平稳波动期;3在季节变化上,春季和秋季人体感觉为舒适,夏季为中度热胁迫,冬季为中度冷胁迫,且以春冬增幅最为显著;4在等级变化上,极端冷胁迫日数在减少,中度冷胁迫和热胁迫日数在增加,人体感觉整体趋于热不舒适;5在影响因素上,北京UTCI变化对气温最为敏感,其次是风速,但是不同季节中气候因子组合存在差异,不同气候因子在不同季节贡献量亦存在差异。
Based on the Universal Thermal Weather Index (UTCI), this paper analyzes the outdoor sensing temperature changes in Beijing from 1960 to 2014 and uses sensitivity analysis methods to quantitatively analyze the dominant factors that drive UTCI changes. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, the annual average body temperature of Beijing was 9.2 ℃, the whole body felt comfortable and showed a significant upward trend, with a rate of change of 0.52 ℃ / 10a. 2 On the interannual variability, It can be roughly divided into three periods: the period from 1960 to 1970 continued to decline, the period from 1971 to 1990 continued to rise, and the period from 1991 to 2014 fluctuated steadily. 3 In the seasonal variation, the human body felt comfortable in spring and autumn and moderate in summer Heat stress and moderate cold stress in winter, with the most significant increase in spring and winter; 4 on the level changes, the number of days of extreme cold stress decreased, the number of days of moderate cold stress and heat stress increased, the overall feeling of the body tend to be thermal discomfort In the influencing factors, the change of UTCI in Beijing is the most sensitive to the temperature, followed by the wind speed, but there are differences in the climatic factors in different seasons and the contributions of different climatic factors in different seasons.