Predictive Model of Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment Response in Primary Biliary Cholangitis

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Background and Aims: Although ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment in primary biliary cholangitis is effective in many patients, there are still many people who respond poor-ly to it. Identifying and intervening these patients early is im-portant. Therefore, exploring the risk factors and proposing a predictor index to predict the UDCA treatment nonresponse earlier among primary biliary cholangitis patients were the aims of this research. Methods: A total of 135 primary bil-iary cholangitis patients treated with UDCA (13–15 mg/kg/d) were enrolled in this retrospective study. The response to treatment was evaluated based on Paris I criteria. The univar-iate and logistic multivariate regression analyses were adopt-ed to determine the independent risk factors and propose a predictor index. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive ability of the predictor index. Results: Total bilirubin, albumin, globulin, immunoglobin M, and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index were the five independent risk factors associating with early bio-chemical nonresponse to UDCA treatment. Based on these factors, we established a predictor index with the predictive value being 0.886 (sensitivity: 82.80%, specificity: 84.40%). Conclusions: We developed a predictor index that had an accurate prediction of the early biochemical nonresponse to UDCA treatment, which is expected to provide valuable infor-mation for the high-risk group before treatment begins.
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