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若将消费习惯纳入Carroll的缓冲储备模型进行理论分析,则显示出消费习惯下的边际消费倾向(MPCP)相比无消费习惯时要小,且消费习惯强度越大,MPCP减小更为明显。若利用卡尔曼滤波法估计我国城镇居民的消费习惯强度,并数值模拟消费习惯下与无消费习惯时的MPCP,且对结果进行分析比较就会发现:我国城镇居民消费习惯强度整体呈上升趋势,对消费的影响逐渐增强;而在消费习惯的影响下,MPCP持续走低,整体呈下降趋势,相比无消费习惯时平均下降幅度从1998-2002年间的0.101上升至2003-2009年间的0.217。显然,消费习惯是导致我国城镇居民MPCP处于低位运行的重要影响因素,因而从居民消费习惯调节上来启动消费的政策不容忽视。
If the consumption habits are included in Carroll’s buffer reserve model, it is shown that the MPCP under spending habits is smaller than that without spending habits, and the greater the consumption habits are, the more obvious MPCP reduction is. If Kalman filter method is used to estimate the intensity of consumption habits of urban residents in our country and numerical simulation of MPCP under consumption habit and non-consumption habit, and the result is analyzed and compared, it will be found that the intensity of consumption habits of urban residents in our country is on the rise, The impact on consumption gradually increased; while under the influence of consumption habits, MPCP continued to decline, the overall downward trend, compared with non-spending habits, the average decline from 0.101 in 1998-2002 increased to 0.217 in 2003-2009. Obviously, consumption habits are the important factors that cause the MPCP of urban residents in our country to run low. Therefore, the policy of starting consumption from the adjustment of residents’ consumption habits can not be ignored.