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采用OLG模型,考察了不同养老制度下的生育政策对生育水平、总产出以及人均产出的影响。模拟发现:随着生育意愿的持续下降,无论是维持生育政策不变还是放开生育政策,通过制定生育上限的政策,都几乎不会对宏观经济发生任何影响;在总产出和人均产出上,积累制养老模式和家庭储蓄养老模式高于现收现付制的养老模式;积累制养老模式在总产出和人均产出上轻微低于家庭储蓄养老模式,基于两者差别微小,从社会公平和当前人口结构的角度看,建议中国的养老模式逐渐过渡到由政府主导的自己养自己的积累制养老模式。
The OLG model was used to examine the impact of the reproductive policies on the level of fertility, total output and per capita output under different pension systems. The simulation shows that with the continuous decline of the wishes of birth, both the maintenance of fertility policy and the liberalization of childbearing policy almost have no effect on the macroeconomy through the policy of establishing the upper limit of fertility. In the total output and per capita output On the other hand, the accumulated old-age model and household savings-old-care model are higher than those of the pay-as-you-go system. The accumulated old-model model is slightly lower than the household-based old-age model for total output and per capita output. Social fairness and the current demographic structure, it is suggested that China’s pension model gradually transition to a government-led self-accumulation model of their own pension system.