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分析了高速铁路列车运行过程中随机干扰的分布规律和累积过程,采用运行计划的状态偏离图,描述了高速铁路列车运行延误的变化机理。分析了高速铁路列车运行过程中冗余时间的分布规律与利用过程,采用运行计划的状态恢复图,描述了冗余时间对延误时间的吸收过程。根据运行干扰作用过程与冗余时间利用过程,研究了高速铁路列车运行冲突的产生机理,建立了随机干扰和冗余时间共同作用下高速铁路列车运行状态的递推过程。运用易语言开发了运行干扰-冗余时间-冲突仿真程序,当干扰概率分别为50%和30%,冗余时间比例分别为15%和10%时,仿真了4种工况下高速铁路列车运行冲突的产生机理。仿真结果表明:随机干扰会导致运行冲突的产生,冗余时间可以吸收延误时间并减小运行冲突个数;随机干扰越小,运行冲突个数越少,当随机干扰概率减小20%时,冲突个数减小17.3%;延误时间越大,可利用的冗余时间越大,当冗余时间比例增大5%时,冲突吸收系数增大6.5%;冗余时间对小干扰概率与小干扰总量下的运行冲突吸收作用更明显。
The distribution and accumulation process of random disturbance during the operation of high-speed railway train are analyzed, and the variation mechanism of high-speed railway train operation delay is described by using the state deviation map of operation plan. The distribution and utilization of redundant time during the operation of high-speed railway train are analyzed. The state recovery map of operation plan is adopted to describe the absorption process of the redundant time for the delay time. According to the process of operation disturbance and the use of redundant time, the mechanism of train operation conflict of high-speed railway is studied and the recursion process of high-speed railway train operation under random disturbance and redundant time is established. When the interference probability is 50% and 30% respectively and the proportion of redundant time is 15% and 10% respectively, the high-speed railway trains The mechanism of operation conflict. The simulation results show that the random interference can lead to the operation conflict, the redundant time can absorb the delay time and reduce the number of operational conflicts. The smaller the random interference, the less the number of operational conflicts. When the probability of random interference decreases by 20% The number of conflicts is reduced by 17.3%; the larger the delay time is, the greater the available redundancy time is. When the proportion of redundant time increases by 5%, the collision absorption coefficient increases by 6.5%; the redundancy time has a small probability of small interference Conflicts of operation under the total interference absorption is more obvious.