论文部分内容阅读
为了探究决策者的感知偏差对实际订购行为的影响,在经典报童模型基础上,引进缺货规避、损失规避有限理性因子,构建了完全缺货惩罚和部分缺货惩罚策略下损失规避型报童的库存决策模型,采用仿真试验的方法对模型进行了验证。试验结果表明:当决策者受缺货规避偏差影响时,其实际订购量大于报童模型最优解,而当决策者受损失规避偏差影响时,其实际订购量小于报童模型最优解;当决策者受缺货规避偏差和损失规避偏差的双重影响时,其订购行为能够解释报童决策偏差现象。报童决策偏差现象揭示了库存管理实践中考虑决策者的有限理性因子,有利于缩小理论模型与管理实践之间的差距,提高库存管理效率。
In order to explore the influence of decision-makers’ perception bias on the actual ordering behavior, based on the classic newsboy model, we introduce the limited rational factors of out-of-stock avoidance and loss avoidance, construct the loss-avoidance-type newsboy under the condition of complete stock-out penalty and partial stock- Inventory decision model, using the method of simulation test model validation. The test results show that when the decision maker is affected by the deviation from stockout avoidance, the actual order quantity is larger than the optimal solution of the newsboy model, while the actual order quantity is smaller than the optimal solution of the newsboy model when the decision maker is affected by the deviation of the loss avoidance. When circumvented by both out-of-stock avoidance and loss-avoidance bias, its ordering behavior can explain the decision-making bias of newspaper boy. Newsboy decision bias phenomenon reveals the limited rationality factor of decision makers in stock management practice, which is helpful to narrow the gap between theoretical model and management practice and improve the efficiency of inventory management.