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根据北京地区历史时期旱灾资料,利用数学统计方法中的参数区间估计研究了明清时期该地区旱灾的差异和气候的不同。结果表明:在北京地区明代(1368-1643年)276年内,共发生旱灾166次,平均1.66年发生1次;轻度旱灾47次,中度旱灾56次,大旱灾55次,特大旱灾8次。在清代(1644-1912年)的269年里,共发生旱灾62次,平均4.34年发生1次;轻度旱灾24次,中度旱灾25次,大旱灾10次,特大旱灾3次。北京地区明清旱灾差异显著,明代旱灾频次是清代的1.7倍;明代旱灾等级比清代显著高,前者的大旱灾与特大旱灾占旱灾总数的27.6%,后者的大旱与特大旱灾仅占5.7%。明代干旱气候事件频繁,清代干旱气候事件少见。北京地区明代旱灾发生频繁和旱灾等级高的原因是当时气候变干和干旱气候事件频繁出现引起的,指示明代是气候较为干旱的时期。北京地区清代旱灾频次低和等级低是当时降水量较多的结果,指示清代是较湿润的时期。明清时期大旱灾发生时的年均降水量为390mm左右,特大旱灾发生时为230mm左右。
Based on the data of drought in the historical period of Beijing area, this paper studied the difference of drought and the difference of climate in the Ming and Qing Dynasties based on the parameter interval estimation in mathematical statistics. The results showed that during the 276 years of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1643) in the Beijing area, 166 drought events occurred, with an average of 1.66 years. There were 47 minor drought events, 56 moderate drought events, 55 major drought events and 8 extraordinary drought events . In the 269 years of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1912), a total of 62 drought events occurred, with an average of 4.34 years. There were 24 minor drought, 25 moderate drought, 10 major drought and 3 extraordinary drought. The drought in the Ming and Qing dynasties in Beijing was significantly different. The droughts in the Ming Dynasty was 1.7 times that of the Qing Dynasty. The droughts in the Ming dynasty were significantly higher than those in the Qing dynasty. The former droughts and severe droughts accounted for 27.6% of the total droughts. Accounting for 5.7%. Arid climate events in the Ming Dynasty frequent, arid climate events in the Qing Dynasty rare. The frequent occurrence of droughts and high levels of drought in the Ming Dynasty in Beijing were caused by the frequent occurrence of climate change and arid climate events in the Ming Dynasty, indicating that the Ming Dynasty was characterized by a relatively dry climate. The low frequency and low level of droughts in the Qing Dynasty in Beijing were the result of more precipitation at that time, indicating that the Qing Dynasty was a wetter period. The average annual precipitation during the Ming dynasty and the Qing dynasty was about 390 mm, while that during the severe drought was about 230 mm.