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脆弱性理论的不断深化和实践发展为城市废弃物资源化利用研究提供了新的视角和方向。本文通过梳理国内外文献,从城市废弃物资源化利用网络的供应、回收、资源化和市场化四个环节提取24个脆弱性影响因素,并将其映射到敏感性、适应性和恢复力三个维度。建立DEMATEL-ISM-ANP集成方法,采取专家问卷调查获取数据开展实证研究,解析各影响因素组和因素间的相互作用关系,并计算各脆弱性因素的影响强度,进而采用综合指数法开展脆弱性评价,识别出关键影响因素并探讨其影响机理。研究结果表明:(1)城市废弃物资源化利用网络脆弱性影响因素具有明显的层次化网络结构特征,24个影响因素可以划分为驱动、互动、随动和独立四种类型;(2)我国城市废弃物资源化利用网络脆弱性指数为3.351,敏感性指数、适应性指数和恢复力指数分别为3.688、3.042和3.362,都处于中高水平,亟需加强调控治理;(3)废弃物供需不匹配是影响系统敏感性的关键因素,资源化效益不佳和回收行为不规范降低了系统适应能力,而消费者的回收知识有限、政府回收政策失效和投融资规模小是系统恢复力缺失的主要原因;(4)废弃物供需不匹配和消费者的回收知识有限属于随动因素,需要从其引致因素入手,采取有针对性的治理策略。因此,本文从这六个关键影响因素入手,提出削减系统脆弱性的政策建议,为促进城市废弃物资源化利用网络稳固升级提供决策依据。
The deepening of fragility theory and practice development provide a new perspective and direction for the research on the utilization of urban waste. By combing domestic and foreign literatures, this paper extracts 24 vulnerability factors from the four aspects of supply, recovery, resource and market of urban waste resource utilization network, and maps them to sensitivity, adaptability and resilience Dimension. The method of integration of DEMATEL-ISM-ANP was established. Empirical questionnaires were conducted to obtain the data to carry out empirical studies. The interaction between the groups of factors and the factors was analyzed and the influence intensity of each of the factors was calculated. Then the comprehensive index method was used to carry out the vulnerability analysis Evaluation, identify the key impact factors and explore its impact mechanism. The results show that: (1) The influencing factors of network vulnerability of resource utilization of urban waste have obvious hierarchical network structure characteristics, 24 factors can be divided into four types: driving, interaction, following and independence; (2) The network vulnerability index of resource utilization of urban waste is 3.351, and the sensitivity index, fitness index and resilience index are 3.688, 3.042 and 3.362, respectively, all at medium and high levels, so it is urgent to strengthen the regulation and control; (3) The supply and demand of waste Matching is a key factor that affects system sensitivity. Poor resource efficiency and irregular behavior of recovery reduce the adaptability of the system, and consumers have limited recycling knowledge. The failure of government recovery policy and the small scale of investment and financing are the main factors of the lack of system resilience Reason; (4) The mismatch of supply and demand of waste and the limited recycling knowledge of consumers are the follow-up factors. It is necessary to start with the factors that cause them and adopt a targeted management strategy. Therefore, based on these six key influencing factors, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of the system and provides decision-making basis for promoting the steady upgrading of urban waste recycling network.