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我国重要的北方针叶林地区大兴安岭是林火高发地区.受气候变暖影响,该地区林火发生频率将会发生显著变化.模拟人为火的发生分布与影响因素之间的关系、加强气候变化下人为火的发生分布预测,对于林火管理和减少森林碳损失具有重要作用.本文采用点格局分析方法,基于大兴安岭1967—2006年的火烧数据,建立人为火空间分布与影响因素之间的关系模型,该模型以林火发生次数为因变量,选取非生物因子(年均温和降水量、坡度、坡向和海拔)、生物因子(植被类型)和人为活动因子(距离道路距离、距离居民点距离、道路密度)共9个因子为自变量.并采用RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5气候情景数据代替当前气候情景预测2050年大兴安岭人为火的空间分布状况.结果表明:点格局模型能够较好地模拟人为火发生分布与空间变量的关系,可以预测未来气候下人为火的发生概率.其中,气候因子对人为火的发生具有明显的控制作用,植被类型、海拔和人为活动等因子对人为火的发生也具有重要影响.林火发生预测结果表明,未来气候变化下,南部地区的林火发生概率将进一步增加,北部和沿主要道路干线附近将成为新的人为火高发区.与当前相比,2050年大兴安岭人为火的发生概率将增加72.2%~166.7%.在未来气候情景下,人为火的发生更多受气候和人为活动因素的控制.
Daxinganling, an important northern coniferous forest region in China, is a region with high incidence of forest fires, and the frequency of forest fires in the region will change significantly due to the impact of climate warming, simulating the relationship between the distribution of fire and its influencing factors, and strengthening climate change The prediction of occurrence and distribution of man-made fire plays an important role in forest fire management and forest carbon loss reduction.This paper uses point pattern analysis method to establish the relationship between man-made fire spatial distribution and the influencing factors based on the fire data of Daxing’anling from 1967 to 2006 This model takes the number of forest fire as the dependent variable and selects abiotic factors (annual mean temperature and precipitation, slope, aspect and elevation), biological factors (vegetation types) and human activity factors (distance to road, distance to settlements Distance and road density) were used as independent variables, and the spatial distribution of artificial fire in Daxing’anling was predicted by RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios in place of the current climate scenarios.The results show that the point pattern model can better simulate the man-made The relationship between the distribution of fire and the spatial variability can predict the probability of human-induced fire in the future climate, in which climate The seeds have a significant control over the occurrence of anthropogenic fire, and the factors such as vegetation types, elevation and anthropogenic activities also have an important influence on the occurrence of anthropogenic fire.The forecast results of forest fire show that under the future climate change, the probability of occurrence of forest fire in the southern region Will further increase in the north and along the main road near the trunk line will become the new artificial high incidence of fire.Compared with the current, the probability of Daxianganling man-made fire in 2050 will increase by 72.2% ~ 166.7% in the future climate scenarios, artificial fire More control of climate and anthropogenic activities takes place.