论文部分内容阅读
为分析螺山站水位变化特征及其影响因素贡献率,采用回归分析、Mann-kendall检验等方法分析螺山站1954~2013年的水位、流量变化规律。结果表明,螺山站水位于1954~1964、2003~2013年呈减小趋势,1965~2002年呈增加趋势,且分别于1977~1979、2004年发生突变。1981~2002年较1967~1980年,1~3月份流量的改变对螺山站水位变化的贡献率分别为38.7%、33.5%、55.2%,河床冲淤及顶托作用的贡献率分别为61.3%、66.5%、44.8%。下荆江裁弯使得螺山站的水位抬升了1.98m,葛洲坝和三峡水库的运行使其水位分别下降了0.92、0.26m。下荆江裁弯、葛洲坝和三峡水库的运行对螺山站水位变化的贡献率分别为63.6%、28.1%、55.4%。研究成果可为长江中下游河道的防洪预报与调度提供参考。
In order to analyze the characteristics of water level change and the contribution rate of its influencing factors in Luoshan Station, the change of water level and flow rate in Luoshan Station from 1954 to 2013 was analyzed by regression analysis and Mann-kendall test. The results showed that the water level of Luoshan Station decreased from 1954 to 1964 and from 2003 to 2013, and increased from 1965 to 2002, with a sudden change from 1977 to 1979 and 2004 respectively. The contribution rates of the change of the discharge from 1981 to 2002 from 1967 to 1980 and from January to March to the water level in Loishan Station were 38.7%, 33.5% and 55.2%, respectively, and the contribution rates of the riverbed scouring and crest supporting functions were 61.3 %, 66.5%, 44.8%. Under the cut of Jingjiang, the water level in Luoshan Station was raised by 1.98m. The operation of Gezhouba Dam and the Three Gorges Reservoir reduced the water level by 0.92 and 0.26m respectively. The contribution rates of the lower Jingjiang River bend, Gezhouba Dam and the Three Gorges Reservoir to the water level change at Luoshan Station are respectively 63.6%, 28.1% and 55.4%. The research results can provide reference for flood control forecasting and scheduling of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.