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目的探讨移动平均法的季节趋势模型在手足口病预测的应用。方法基于宜昌市2010-2014年逐月手足口病发病率建立移动平均法的季节趋势模型,并将拟合值与实际值进行拟合评价。结果 2010-2014年手足口病的实际值与拟合值相对误差为5.310%,模型拟合较好。应用季节趋势模型可对2015年手足口病的发病率进行预测。结论基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型,能较好的模拟手足口病发病在时间序列的变化趋势,但因其计算简单,仅适用短期预测。
Objective To explore the application of the seasonal trend model of moving average method in the prediction of HFMD. Methods Based on the monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yichang City from 2010 to 2014, the moving average method was used to establish the seasonal trend model. The fitted and actual values were fitted and evaluated. Results The relative error between the actual value and the fitted value of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2010-2014 was 5.310%, and the model fit well. The seasonal trend model is used to predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2015. Conclusion The seasonal trend model based on the moving average method can better simulate the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in time series. However, due to its simple calculation, only the short-term forecast is applicable.