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运用能值分析方法,对黑龙江省2001～2010年能值流量进行动态定量分析,在分析能值发展趋势后建立了情景预测模型,对黑龙江省不可更新资源能值进行预测。结果显示:黑龙江省能值流量均有不同程度的增长,生态经济系统发展程度不断提高的同时环境压力随之增长;能值指标体系中,主要的7个指标中有5个呈恶化趋势,系统可持续性能有所下降;黑龙江省不可更新资源能值将保持年均5%以上的增速,资源消耗和环境压力将进一步增大;未来一段时间影响黑龙江省能值增长的关键因素是化石能源,其影响程度要大于资源,但其重要性会逐年减小。
Using emergy analysis method, the emergy flow of Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2010 was dynamically and quantitatively analyzed. After analyzing the trend of emergy development, a scenario prediction model was established to forecast the emergy value of non-renewable resources in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the emergy flow in Heilongjiang Province all increased to some extent, while the development of eco-economic system continued to increase while the environmental pressure increased. In the emergy index system, five of the seven major indicators showed a worsening trend. The system Sustainable performance has declined; non-renewable resources in Heilongjiang Province will be able to maintain an average annual growth rate of more than 5%, resource consumption and environmental pressures will further increase; the next period of time affect the value growth in Heilongjiang Province, the key factor is the fossil energy , Its impact is greater than the resources, but its importance will decrease year by year.