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本文通过1966年美国国债收益曲线反向与季度经济形势的实证,初步探索了收益曲线反向后美国经济未衰退的原因。结论是1966年美国经济在收益曲线反向后未衰退有两个的特殊原因。一是因美军直接介入越南战争而造成美国联邦支出的大幅扩张,并带动了企业投资增长;二是美联储的降息停息政策引致住房信贷的扩张,从而带动了住宅投资的大幅增长。所以1966年的特例不足以否定国债收益曲线反向是美国经济衰退先兆的经验结论。
In this paper, the reverse of the US Treasury bond yield curve in 1966 and the empirical evidence of the quarterly economic situation have tentatively explored the reasons why the U.S. economy has not declined after the reverse of the yield curve. The conclusion is that there were two specific reasons why the U.S. economy did not decline after the yield curve was reversed in 1966. First, the direct involvement of the U.S. military in the Vietnam War caused a substantial expansion of U.S. federal expenditures and led to the growth of corporate investment. The second was that the Fed’s interest-rate cut-off policy led to the expansion of housing credit, which led to a substantial increase in residential investment. Therefore, the special case of 1966 is not enough to deny that the reverse of the yield curve of the national debt is the empirical conclusion of the U.S. recession.