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本文基于引力模型,就1995—2010年期间中国在东亚已签订的RTAs对中国中间品进口的影响进行了实证研究。为了克服由于异方差和零贸易流带来的估计偏差问题,本文采用泊松极大似然估计的方法,从而较为精确地测度了中国融入东亚一体化对其中间品进口的贸易效应。计量结果表明,在控制了国家层面的异质性偏差之后,忽略零贸易流对中国中间品进口的影响相对减弱了。如果将零贸易流考虑在内,此时中国参与东亚一体化显著促进了中国中间品的进口。更具体地,中国在东亚签订的RTAs产生的贸易效应为12.30%。同时从产品内分工的角度看,中国融入国际分工体系程度的加深,对中间品的进口有显著的正向作用,因此中国应该更好地融入全球区域经济合作,尤其是东亚生产网络。
Based on the gravity model, this paper conducts an empirical study of the impact of RTAs that China has already signed in East Asia on the imports of Chinese intermediate goods in 1995-2010. In order to overcome the problem of estimation deviation caused by heteroskedasticity and zero trade flow, Poisson Maximum Likelihood Estimation is adopted in this paper to measure the trade effect of China’s integration into the integration of East Asia into the imports of intermediate goods. The measurement results show that after controlling for the heterogeneity bias at the national level, ignoring the impact of zero trade flow on China’s imports of intermediate goods has weakened relatively. Taking zero trade flows into account, China’s participation in East Asia integration significantly boosted imports of China’s intermediate products at this time. More specifically, the trade effect of RTAs signed by China in East Asia is 12.30%. At the same time, from the perspective of intra-product division of labor, the deepening of China’s integration into the international division of labor system has a significant positive effect on the import of intermediate goods. Therefore, China should better integrate itself into global regional economic cooperation, especially the East Asian production network.