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本文通过对合川市 1972~ 1996年秋蚕茧单产及总产与蚕期各时段气象因子进行的相关分析 ,找出与单、总产相关显著的气象因子 ,用逐步回归方法 ,将单、总产的气候波动产量与上述因子建立回归预测模式 ,据此可得出影响秋蚕产量的主要气象因子 ,同时可根据蚕期长期天气预报 ,预测出当年秋蚕发种量。通过讨论分析 ,提出合川市秋蚕出库发种时间应从 8月上旬调整为 8月中旬中至 8月下旬前期。
In this paper, by analyzing the correlation between meteorological factors and yield per hectare of Coleus cochlear during the autumn of 1972 ~ 1996 in Hechuan, the meteorological factors related to single and total output were found out. Climatic fluctuation output and the above factors to establish a regression prediction model, which can be derived from the main meteorological factors affecting the yield of autumn silkworm, but also based on the long-term weather forecast silkworm silkworm, predict the amount of autumn silkworm. Through the discussion and analysis, put forward Hechuan autumn silkworm delivery departure time should be adjusted from early August to mid-August to early August.