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1998年,面对东亚金融危机的冲击,中国经济发展前景如何?目前经济发展中存在着什么问题?未来政策取向应是什么?这些都是大家关心的热点问题。为此,中国信息协会预测专业委员会于5月下旬对经济专家进行了问卷调查,以便汇集经济专家的意见,为政府决策提供建议。参加本次调查的既有来自实际工作部门(比如中国人民银行、国家经贸委及有关局、财政部等)的专家,也有来自对宏观经济颇有研究的科研院所和大学的经济专家、学者(如国家计委宏观院、中国社会科学院、国务院发展中心、航天总公司710所、国家信息中心、国家体改基金会、北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、吉林大学、西北大学、上海社科院等),还有部分省市的经济研究工作专家(黑龙江信息中心、四川信息中心、山西信息中心等)。本次调查共发出问卷70份,回收问卷44份,回收率为63%。下面我们对本次调查结果作一汇总分析。
In the face of the impact of the East Asian financial crisis in 1998, what is the outlook for China’s economic development? What are the current problems in economic development? What are the future policy orientations? These are the hot issues that everyone cares about. To this end, the China Information Association predicted that the professional committee conducted a survey of economic experts in late May in order to bring together the opinions of economic experts and provide suggestions for government decision-making. Participants in this survey included experts from the actual work departments (such as the People’s Bank of China, the State Economic and Trade Commission, the relevant bureaus, the Ministry of Finance, etc.) as well as economists and scholars from research institutes and universities that have studied the macro economy (Such as State Planning Commission macro academy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, State Council Development Center, Aerospace Corporation 710, National Information Center, National Reform Foundation, Peking University, Tsinghua University, Renmin University of China, Jilin University, Northwestern University, Shanghai ASTRI, etc.), as well as economic research experts (Heilongjiang Information Center, Sichuan Information Center, Shanxi Information Center, etc.) of some provinces and cities. The survey sent a total of 70 questionnaires, 44 questionnaires were recovered, the recovery rate was 63%. Below we make a summary analysis of the survey results.