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本文通过分析能源、经济与环境的运行环境与运行机制,总结三者之间的影响因子,采用系统动力学方法,建立了新疆能源可持续发展的系统动力学模型,设立了模型变量与公式。根据控制变量的确定原则,结合计算机软件仿真模拟,选择了若干指标作为调控变量,通过调整常量及表函数取值,以2010-2020年为时间区间设定情景进行政策模拟,确立了新疆跨越式发展下“能源-经济-环境”系统协调可持续发展的方案,为政府制定相关的能源产业政策提供决策依据。
By analyzing the operating environment and operation mechanism of energy, economy and environment, and summarizing the influencing factors of the three factors, this paper established a system dynamics model of energy sustainable development in Xinjiang and established model variables and formulas using system dynamics method. According to the principle of determining control variables and combining with the simulation of computer software, a number of indicators are selected as the control variables. By adjusting the values of constants and table functions, the policy simulation is carried out with the setting of time interval from 2010 to 2020, Under the development of “energy - economy - environment” system of coordinated and sustainable development program for the government to formulate relevant energy industry policy decision-making basis.