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加强和改善宏观调控,保持价格平稳运行,促进经济持续健康发展是经济工作的重中之重.鉴于BP神经网络模型具有很好地模拟非线性系统的优点,对BP神经网络模型进行了新的改进,在对权值和阈值进行修改时加入了动量项α,并根据以往两次金融危机前后中国CPI运行具有较高相关性的特点,以1997年和2008年两次金融危机集中爆发前后数年数据为基础,运用该模型对中国CPI指数运行进行了拟合,并以2011年为例对中国CPI指数进行了预测,结果与实际运行数据基本一致,预测效果很好.此方法可为改进价格预测,加强价格调控提供重要借鉴意义.
To strengthen and improve the macroeconomic regulation and control, keep the price stable, and promote the sustained and healthy development of the economy are the most important tasks in the economic work.Because the BP neural network model has the advantages of simulating the nonlinear system well, the new BP neural network model Improved, adding the momentum term α when modifying the weights and thresholds, and according to the characteristics that the Chinese CPI operation had a high correlation before and after the previous two financial crises, taking the former and latter episodes in 1997 and 2008 as the focus of the financial crisis This model is used to fit the operation of China’s CPI index, and the CPI index of China is predicted by the example of 2011. The result is in good agreement with the actual operating data and the forecasting result is very good. This method can be improved Price forecast, strengthen price regulation provide important reference.