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本文基于1998—2012年我国双边贸易数据和细分行业数据,对我国进出口贸易的价格弹性和收入弹性进行了测算,结果发现,我国进口价格弹性为-0.30,出口价格弹性为0.48,说明马歇尔—勒纳条件不成立。无论是国别层面还是行业层面,出口价格弹性大于进口价格弹性,这主要是由于我国进口以原材料等资源类商品为主,而出口则以制成品为主;进出口收入弹性大于价格弹性,说明我国贸易顺差主要是经济增长的结果,汇率只是次要因素。
Based on the data of China’s bilateral trade and subdivided industries from 1998 to 2012, this paper estimates the price elasticity and income elasticity of China’s import and export trade and finds that the import price elasticity in China is -0.30 and the export price elasticity is 0.48, indicating that Marshall - Lerner condition does not hold. The price elasticity of export is greater than the price elasticity of import at both the national level and the industrial level. This is mainly due to the fact that China imports raw materials and other resource-based products, while the exports are mainly manufactured goods. The import and export income elasticity is greater than the price elasticity, This shows that China’s trade surplus is mainly the result of economic growth, and the exchange rate is only a secondary factor.