7月份的指标走势表明,经济形势仍不乐观。三大需求中消费与外需同比增速下行,投资同比增速走平;工业生产增速与投资走势相似。先行指标PMI虽处于50以上,但是景气度明显降低。生产领域通缩现象明显,CPI增速继续下行。在此背景下,中共中央政治局于7月31日召开会议,强调以扩大内需为战略基点,把稳增长放在更加重要的位置。由此推断,积极的财政政策力度会加大,货币会朝着放松的方向推进,从而带动三季度经济触底回升。 The trend of the index in July shows that the economic situation is still not optimistic. In the three major demands, the growth of consumption and external demand slowed down year by year, and the investment growth went flat YoY; the growth rate of industrial production and the investment trend were similar. Although the leading indicator PMI above 50, but significantly reduced the degree of prosperity. The phenomenon of deflation in the production area is obvious, and the CPI growth rate continues to decline. Against this backdrop, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 31, stressing that expanding domestic demand should be the strategic starting point and stabilizing growth in a more important position. It can be inferred that the proactive fiscal policy will intensify and the currency will move toward easing in order to push the bottoming out of economy in the third quarter.