一、引言在整个人类历史上,每次大地震之后,人们都在致力于估计地震的损失。1906年旧金山大地震是最早一次为定量估计地震损失提供有用资料的地震。在美国,每次大地震之后,都曾经对地震损失作过不同精度的估计,然而在1971年以前,损失的统计资料价值不大,因为有用的地面运动资料有限,虽然在编汇详细的地震损失资料方面,曾尽了很大的努力。致力于研究损失预测的定量方法只是最近几年的事。在十五年前,预先估计地震可 I. INTRODUCTION In the entire history of mankind, after each major earthquake, people are committed to estimating the loss of the earthquake. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake was the first earthquake to provide useful data for the quantitative estimation of seismic losses. In the United States, after each major earthquake, seismic loss has been estimated with different accuracy. However, before 1971, the loss statistics were of little value because of limited useful ground motion data, although detailed earthquakes were compiled. Regarding loss of information, great efforts have been made. The quantitative methods that are devoted to the study of loss predictions are only recent years. Fifteen years ago, anticipating earthquakes