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根据官厅水库的实际情况，在总结前人工作的基础上，采用经验性较强的洪水预报方案，即粗估径流系数，计算降雨区产流量；利用河道上下游站洪峰流量和传播时间建立相关曲线，推求入库洪峰时间和洪水总量；对无测站控制的单元产流区降雨径流过程，采用径流模式图计算洪峰流量和洪水总量；根据水库控制运用计划，用水库调度演算方法推求水库最高洪水位和下泄流量。经过多年实践考验，该预报方案预报精度基本满足水库调度要求，操作方便，但缺乏严密的理论性。
According to the actual situation of Guanting Reservoir, based on the summary of predecessors' work, a flood forecasting program with strong experience is adopted, that is, the runoff coefficient is roughly estimated to calculate the runoff in the rainfall area; the correlation curve is established by using the peak flow and propagation time of the upstream and downstream of the riverway , Calculate the peak storage time and the total amount of flood; For the runoff-free process of unit runoff area without station control, calculate the flood peak flow and total amount of flood using runoff pattern; According to the reservoir control plan, Highest flood level and discharge flow. After many years of practical tests, the prediction accuracy of the forecasting scheme basically meets the requirements of reservoir scheduling and is easy to operate, but lacks rigorous theoretical.