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利用三峡近坝区历年地质灾害调查和降水观测资料,分析地质灾害与气象条件的关系,结果表明:地质灾害年分布与降水量年分布基本相同,大气降水是地质灾害的重要诱因,地质灾害发生的可能性与暴雨强度成正比,与前期阴雨长度和累计雨量成正比,由此提出地质灾害气象预警报诱发指数和强降水数值预报释用方法。利用CINRAD/SA天气雷达、气象卫星、自动气象站等监测网络,结合国内外数值预报产品释用技术,建立三峡近坝区地质灾害气象预警服务系统,可滚动制作未来24～144 h地质灾害气象预警报等级和0～12 h临近预警报。
The geological disasters and meteorological conditions were analyzed based on the geological disasters survey and precipitation observation data in the dam area near the Three Gorges area. The results show that annual distribution of geologic disasters and precipitation distribution are basically the same. Precipitation is an important cause of geological disasters and geological disasters occur Is directly proportional to the intensity of rainstorm and proportional to the length of rainy season and accumulated rainfall in the previous period. Therefore, the index of pre-warning meteorological index for geological disasters and numerical prediction and interpretation of heavy rainfall are put forward. Using the monitoring network of CINRAD / SA weather radar, meteorological satellite and automatic meteorological station, combined with the technology of numerical prediction products release at home and abroad, a weather warning service system for geological disasters near the dam area of the Three Gorges Project was established to produce the geological disaster meteorology Pre-alert level and 0 ~ 12 h near the early warning.