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随着珠江口地区经济的迅速发展,盐水入侵日益严重,不仅影响到周边城市的淡水供应,也为工农业生产带来了不必要的损失。基于前人研究成果,推导了一种简单有效的盐水入侵预测模式。该预测模式首先通过对现有的水文资料做线性回归分析,反演出河道的扩散系数Dx,再将Dx代入预测模式,即可计算出河道沿程的盐度值和盐水入侵距离。为了检验该预测模式,利用磨刀门2005年1月19日至2月4日的水文实测资料,就磨刀门的盐水入侵情况进行模拟,并采用卡方拟合优度检验法分析预测误差,结果表明该盐水入侵预测模型在磨刀门具有适用性。最后,通过分析磨刀门地区盐水入侵距离与潮差的响应关系,得出小潮前2~3d为增大压咸流量的最佳时机这一结论,可为“咸害”的防治提供理论依据。
With the rapid economic development in the Pearl River Estuary, salt water intrusion has become increasingly serious, which not only affects the fresh water supply in surrounding cities but also brings unnecessary losses to industrial and agricultural production. Based on the previous research results, a simple and effective prediction model of salt water intrusion is derived. The prediction model first calculates the salinity value and saltwater intrusion distance along the river by linear regression analysis of existing hydrological data, inversion of river channel diffusion coefficient Dx, and then Dx into the prediction model. In order to test the prediction model, the saltwater intrusion of Saber gate was simulated by using hydrograph data from 19 January to 4 February 2005 of Saber Gate, and the prediction error was analyzed by chi-square goodness-of-fit test The results show that the salt water invasion prediction model is suitable for grinding knife. Finally, the conclusion that the best time to increase the salty flow rate is 2 ~ 3 days before the tidal current by analyzing the response of salt water intrusion distance and tidal range in Shaodongmen area, which can be provided for the prevention Theoretical basis.