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虽然化肥产业政策改革的呼声日益升高,但政策转变带来的影响却不甚明确。针对目前比较公认的“三步走”改革方案,即先取消天然气优惠,再取消电力及运输优惠,第三步取消增值税优惠,核算了产业政策的影响程度。结果表明,中国化肥产业受政策影响巨大,全行业政策支持力度达到403.1亿元,影响程度大小依次为增值税、电力、运输、天然气。通过分析各项政策改革可能引起的问题,虽然政策改革对化肥产业的影响可通过产业结构调整来适应,但是化肥价格上涨对农户的影响却只能由农户来承担,仅转移产业优惠的400多亿给农户无法防范市场波动的冲击,必须结合多项措施来规范市场、保证供应。强调应重视利用WTO绿箱政策普及肥料基本知识,使农户学会科学使用肥料以达到减少化肥使用量的目的。
Although the policy of fertilizer industry reform is growing louder and louder, the impact of policy changes is not clear. In view of the currently accepted “three-step” reform program, that is, to cancel natural gas concessions, and then cancel the power and transportation concessions, the third step to cancel the VAT concessions, accounting for the extent of the impact of industrial policies. The results show that the fertilizer industry in China is greatly affected by the policy, the entire industry policy support reached 40.31 billion yuan, the impact of the magnitude of the value-added tax, electricity, transportation, natural gas. By analyzing the possible problems caused by various policy reforms, although the impact of policy reform on the fertilizer industry can be adapted through industrial restructuring, the impact of fertilizer prices on farmers can only be borne by farmers, and only the more than 400 One hundred million yuan can not prevent farmers from the impact of market fluctuations. We must combine a number of measures to regulate the market and ensure supply. Emphasis should be placed on using the green box policy of WTO to popularize the basic knowledge of fertilizers so as to enable farmers to learn how to use the fertilizers scientifically in order to reduce the amount of fertilizer used.