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本文描述了一个简单的野燕麦生活史数学模型——用于预测农民控制野燕麦严重危害冬小麦的经济效益。调查了在不同栽培制度下施用除草剂可获得的经济效益。检验了模型对除草剂性能、烧麦杆、初始草害和小麦价格等的灵敏性。根据模型预测、在野燕麦密度每平米达2—3株时,施药可获得最高的长期经济效益。这一结果是否显著地因每年施药挽回经济损失取决于初始草害水平和栽培方法。烧麦杆与否对经济影响可能很小。
This article describes a simple mathematical model of life history of wild oats - used to predict the economic benefits of farmer’s control of wild oats severely endangering winter wheat. Investigated the economic benefits of applying herbicides under different cultivation regimes. The model was tested for its sensitivity to herbicide properties, burned straw, initial grass weeds and wheat prices. According to the model predictions, the highest long-term economic benefit can be obtained when the wild oats have a density of 2-3 strains per square meter. Whether this result is significantly reduced by annual application of pesticides depends on the initial level of grass damage and the method of cultivation. The economic impact of burning wheat straw may be small.