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本文利用相关计算机实验软件,通过设置4组初始资金约束状况不同的实验环境,选取71名实验参与人作为交易者,检验了资金约束状况与证券泡沫的相关关系。实验结果表明,代表市场资金约束状况的流动性价值(初始现金总量与证券数目的比值)与证券价格泡沫存在显著的正向相关关系。对实验中价格泡沫现象的讨论还表明,资金约束放松为交易者非理性情况下价格泡沫的产生和膨胀创造了必要条件。根据实验结论,中央银行在制定金融政策的过程中,必须充分考虑货币供应量以及资本流动对证券市场可能带来的影响。
In this paper, we use the relevant computer experimental software to set up four different experimental environments with different initial fund constraints, and select 71 participants as traders to test the relationship between capital constraints and securities bubbles. The experimental results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the liquidity value (the ratio of initial total cash to the number of securities) that represents the market capital constraints and the stock price bubble. The discussion of the price bubbles in the experiment also shows that the relaxation of financial constraints creates the necessary conditions for the emergence and expansion of price bubbles in the irrational circumstances of traders. According to the experimental conclusion, during the process of formulating financial policy, the central bank must give full consideration to the possible impact of money supply and capital flow on the securities market.